Poland’s economy will grow at a moderate pace in the coming years, and inflation will gradually decline – these are the conclusions of the latest OECD “Economic Outlook” report. What exactly were the forecasts made by the experts, and what risks does the Polish economy face? Here are the main points.
Economic forecasts for 2025 and 2026
According to OECD estimates, in 2025 Polish GDP will grow by 3.4%, and CPI inflation will reach 5.0%. A year later, the economic growth rate will slow slightly, reaching 3.0%, with inflation at 3.9%. While these indicators may seem moderate, analysts stress that Poland’s macroeconomic situation remains relatively stable, despite challenges from global and local factors.
Substantial production capacity and reducing inflation
The report draws attention to significant spare capacity in the Polish economy. This phenomenon may contribute to a reduction in labor market shortages, a slowdown in wage growth and, consequently, a decline in core inflation. This is a key factor that can support price stabilization and improve the predictability of economic conditions for businesses and consumers.
Risks to economic growth
While the OECD’s forecasts are optimistic, analysts also point to a number of risks that could affect the Polish economy:
- Absorption of EU funds – Faster-than-expected absorption of funds from the European Union could boost investment levels. However, labor shortages and time constraints may hinder the effective use of these funds.
- High wage growth – Dynamic wage growth may stimulate consumption, but at the same time drive inflation, which will negatively affect economic stability.
- Conflict in Ukraine – The ongoing war across Poland’s eastern border remains one of the biggest risks, potentially leading to both higher inflation and slower economic growth in the region.
Monetary policy and interest rates
The OECD report highlighted that the National Bank of Poland kept interest rates at 5.75% in 2023, in order to counter inflation and stabilize the economy. Experts predict that restrictive monetary policy will be eased only from mid-2025, and by the end of 2026, interest rates could fall to 4%. This approach is aimed at easing inflationary pressures while supporting economic growth.
Summary
OECD forecasts for the Polish economy point to stable growth and a gradual reduction in inflation in the coming years. However, the success of these scenarios will depend on the effective management of risks, such as the absorption of EU funds, wage growth and the impact of the conflict in Ukraine. Monetary and investment policy decisions will play a key role in maintaining economic stability.
The Polish economy faces many challenges, but also has the potential for further growth. It will be crucial to ensure a balance between growth and macroeconomic stability in order to take advantage of upcoming opportunities and minimize the impact of global uncertainties.
