The latest reading of the EFL Barometer for Q3 2024 brings positive news for the SME sector. The index came in at 51.2 points, up from last year, when the value was 48.1 points. This result shows that Polish companies increasingly believe in their future and are ready to invest, grow and take on new challenges.
Increased willingness to invest
In the past two years, entrepreneurs have become increasingly willing to invest in the development of their companies. In the third quarter of this year, as many as 15% of companies declared an increase in investment. This is a significant increase compared to previous quarters, where the figure hovered around 12%, and by the end of 2023 was only 8%. It is also worth noting that the level of liquidity of companies has increased slightly compared to previous measurements, which further supports their willingness to invest.
Differences in sentiment among different groups of companies
Analyzing sentiment among different segments of companies, we note some differences. Micro, small and medium-sized companies show slightly worse sentiment than in Q2. Medium-sized companies with 50 to 249 employees remain the most optimistic, with a score of 56.1. In comparison, micro companies with up to 9 employees scored below the optimism threshold with 48.8 points, and small companies scored 50.9 points.
Plans for the future
It is worth taking a detailed look at investment plans. Medium-sized companies plan to significantly increase their investments – as many as 42% of them declare such intentions for the third quarter of 2024, an increase of 8 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. For small and micro companies, the percentages are 10% and 6%, respectively. Similar differences can be seen in expectations for sales growth – 30% of medium-sized companies hope to increase turnover, while among small and micro companies the figures are 17% and 11%, respectively.
Impact of global factors on the Polish market
As experts point out, the global economy continues to grapple with numerous destabilizing factors that affect both the situation in our trading partners and the functioning of Polish industry and the service sector. However, Polish entrepreneurs are showing flexibility and the ability to react quickly, which is becoming crucial in dealing with unpredictable events.
Economic forecasts
The European Commission’s forecasts for the coming years are optimistic. Polish GDP is expected to grow at a rate of 2.7% in 2024, with growth accelerating to 3.2% in 2025. Unemployment is expected to remain low at 2.8%. BOĊ analysts also point to a gradual improvement in Polish industry, forecasting industrial production growth in the range of 3.0% – 5.0% year-on-year in the coming months.
Summary
The EFL Barometer for Q3 2024 brings positive signals for the SME sector. Companies are optimistic about the future, planning new investments and expecting sales growth. Despite global challenges, flexibility and the ability to react quickly allow Polish entrepreneurs to successfully face unpredictable events. Economic forecasts for the coming years are promising, which allows us to look with hope at the further development of the Polish economy. We encourage you to discuss – how are your companies coping in the current conditions and what plans do you have for the future?
